The vast majority of these targets were of the "dual-use" variety in that they served a civilian as well as a military function. Damage to Yugoslav military forces and the "resurgence" of the Kosovo Liberation Army generated little pressure. Even though purely military targets were the primary focus of the NATO air campaign, air attacks on such targets probably did not greatly concern Milosevic. Most of the purely military facilities struck by NATO were empty of personnel and equipment when hit, and the amount of Yugoslav army armor and artillery lost to NATO air attacks constituted only a small percentage of total inventories.
Nor is there evidence that the purported "resurgence" of the Kosovo Liberation Army KLA in Kosovo significantly affected Milosevic's decision to yield. Even at the end of the conflict, Yugoslav military and security forces continued to dominate the battlefield in Kosovo. Milosevic expected unconstrained bombing if NATO's terms were rejected.
The evidence suggests that the key reason Milosevic accepted NATO's terms on June 3 was his fear of the bombing that would follow if he refused. Milosevic and his colleagues believed that NATO was poised to launch a "fierce" and unconstrained bombing campaign if its peace terms—which had now been endorsed by Russia—were rejected. The Serb leaders were convinced that NATO was prepared to employ "massive bombing" to demolish their country's entire infrastructure-including its remaining bridges, electric power facilities, telephone systems, and factories.
Milosevic apparently calculated that the Serbian public would neither long tolerate nor forgive him for the hardships that would result from such intensified bombing, particularly if its more extreme effects—such as a continuous, nationwide power outage—carried over into the harsh Balkan winter. He therefore concluded that a continued refusal to make peace would likely cost him his hold on power.
He probably also worried about the threat of future invasion. The increasing talk of an eventual NATO ground invasion was probably another, though lesser, factor in Milosevic's decision. While Milosevic had reason to view an invasion as a more distant threat—it would have taken NATO two to three months to deploy sufficient troops within the theater for a ground attack—he may have worried that a future ground conflict might not be confined to Kosovo and could directly endanger his power, safety, and freedom.
Milosevic believed NATO's terms were the best he could get. Finally, Milosevic acceded to NATO's demands because he was convinced that NATO's terms were unlikely to improve and realized that the agreement being offered provided him with some political cover. While certain terms, such as the requirements governing the withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo, were less favorable than those contained in the Rambouillet Agreement, other terms could be portrayed as improvements.
NATO's access was now limited only to Kosovo; there was no longer a suggestion that Kosovo's future would be decided by a referendum; and Yugoslavia's territorial integrity and sovereignty with respect to Kosovo were reaffirmed by the Security Council. Thus, even though NATO's basic demands were satisfied, Milosevic could still claim a victory of sorts. Advanced search Search history.
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Introduction Ch. Concluding Observations. In the Library Request this item to view in the Library's reading rooms using your library card.
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RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. In both conflicts, U. Because U. Among other issues, the study analyzes 1 the assumptions and other calculations that underlay Milosevics initial decision to defy NATOs demands with regard to Kosovo, and 2 the political, economic, and military developments and pressures and the resulting expectations and concerns that most heavily influenced his subsequent decision to come to terms.
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